2026 Deal Outlook and Market Trends with Brian Meegan
Jan 07, 2026
In this episode of the DealQuest Podcast, I'm thrilled to kick off the year with my partner Brian Meegan for a conversation about where the deal market has been and where we think it's headed. Brian has been a tremendous addition to Kupfer., bringing his extensive transactional experience from his Denver practice to complement our nationwide deal work. Together, we've handled dozens of deals this year totaling hundreds of millions of dollars in purchase price and enterprise value.
We recorded this conversation in December 2025, and rather than bring in a guest, we decided to share our frontline perspective on what we've been seeing across our practice. From the wealth management space that continues to see robust activity to the trade industries experiencing consolidation, from the question of tariffs and their potential legal challenges to the importance of equitizing your next generation leadership, this conversation covers the trends every dealmaker needs to understand heading into 2026. Whether you're considering a sale, planning an acquisition, raising capital, or simply want to understand how current economic and political factors may affect your business decisions, this episode offers real-world perspective from two attorneys who are in the thick of it every day.
A LUMPY M&A MARKET IN 2025
One of the most accurate ways to describe 2025's deal market is lumpy. While our practice remained busy throughout the year, conversations with colleagues in other regions and industries revealed a more mixed picture. Some sectors, particularly wealth management, continued at a strong pace. Others slowed considerably.
The factors contributing to this unevenness include weaker earnings in certain industries combined with elevated prices. This created a disconnect between buyer and seller expectations. Add falling interest rates that signal a brighter future, and you get a situation where both parties might prefer to wait rather than push through a deal at a breakneck pace. The result is lower overall transaction numbers in many sectors, even while specific niches remain active.
THE POWER AND PROBLEM OF UNCERTAINTY
Markets crave certainty. When we advise clients, we often explain this hierarchy. The best outcome is certainty in the direction you want. The second-best outcome is certainty in the direction you don't want. The worst outcome is continued uncertainty.
The passing of what's been called the "big beautiful bill" has created some clarity around tax policy, including additional R&D credits and increases to the SALT deduction. Regardless of political views, this kind of legislative certainty allows businesses to plan with more confidence. Yet tariffs remain a wildcard, especially with potential Supreme Court review of their legality. For industries directly affected by supply chain considerations, this ongoing uncertainty around tariffs has real productivity costs beyond just the dollar figures. Companies are refiguring supply chains, potentially moving manufacturing sources from one country to another, only to face the possibility of having to rethink everything again.
HUMANS NORMALIZE ANYTHING
One fascinating observation from our practice is that even uncertainty itself can become normalized. When uncertainty persists long enough, it becomes the new operating environment. Businesses that put off decisions waiting for clarity eventually reach a point where they need to act regardless of what's still unknown.
This speaks to a larger truth about dealmaking. There is always going to be some level of uncertainty in the world. Black swan events happen. Geopolitics shifts. Policy changes. At some point, business owners and dealmakers have to proceed with imperfect information. The key is divorcing your personal political feelings from your business analysis so you can make clear-eyed decisions about what the actual economic impacts of various policies might be.
PENT-UP DEMAND BUILDING PRESSURE
Just like there's a certain baseline level of unemployment because people are always in transition, there's a certain baseline level of deal activity that should always be occurring. People retire. They want to transition their businesses. They need to exit.
When this natural deal flow gets suppressed because of uncertainty or unfavorable market conditions, it doesn't disappear. It builds pressure. Brian's observation is that this pent-up demand could release in 2026 if we see clearer conditions. Combined with enormous amounts of dry powder sitting in private equity funds, many of which are facing pressure from their fund timelines, we could see significant activity. This echoes what we discussed in Episode 331 about the M&A Market Outlook for 2025, where surveys showed strong optimism that hasn't yet fully materialized but remains in the market.
DRY POWDER AND FUND PRESSURES
Private equity firms are flush with capital, yet many are later in their fund lifecycles without having exited the investments they've already made. Investors want returns, and fund documents have end dates that require some action. Firms can extend through various mechanisms or pursue recapitalizations, but the fundamental reality remains. There is a huge amount of money looking for deployment.
If there's any correction around the tech sector and investors start looking for alternatives to public market exposure, that capital could flow into deals as well. Money is simply not the constraint in this environment. The constraint is finding the right opportunities and having the clarity to move forward on them.
BEYOND M&A AND OTHER DEAL TYPES
While much of our conversation focused on M&A, the trends we discussed affect every type of deal. Whether the tariff situation creates opportunities or challenges, businesses are looking at new joint ventures, strategic alliances, distribution arrangements, and licensing deals.
The hope that tariff policies will encourage domestic manufacturing creates its own opportunities, though the challenge is that building manufacturing capacity is a long-term investment. Companies may be hesitant if they're not confident the policies will continue. Still, change of any type creates both challenges and opportunities. For dealmakers who remain alert, new partnership structures and arrangements will emerge from this period of transition.
NEW FOREIGN MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
For years, China represented the dominant foreign market opportunity. That landscape is shifting. Whether because of tariffs or other factors, investment flows are moving to different destinations. India is gaining attention. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict reaches a lasting resolution, Ukraine represents a major country with substantial natural resources and multiple industries that will need rebuilding.
These geopolitical shifts create opportunities for dealmakers willing to look beyond traditional markets. New distribution relationships, manufacturing partnerships, and investment opportunities will emerge in regions that weren't previously on the radar.
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN DEAL ACTIVITY
Brian brings perspective from his Denver practice, which serves a different market than my work in New York and Los Angeles. Colorado has a strong tech sector, particularly around Boulder, Colorado Springs, and the greater Denver area. The state has seen migration from California, bringing talent seeking more freedom and lower taxes while maintaining their tech careers.
Natural resources and alternative energy also figure prominently in the Colorado economy, including solar, battery technology, and companies developing navigation software for autonomous vehicles. Heavy manufacturing concentrates more in Arizona and Nevada, where chip manufacturing and data centers represent significant investment. Understanding these regional differences matters because deal opportunities vary significantly based on geography and local industry concentrations.
THE SWEATY STARTUPS AND TRADE CONSOLIDATION
One trend that continues to evolve is the consolidation and professionalization of what Tom Dillon from Episode 350 called the "sweaty startups." Plumbing, electrical, HVAC, roofing, gutters, construction trades. These industries have seen PE money and consolidation efforts for the past ten to fifteen years, bringing technology, professional marketing, and operational efficiencies to traditionally fragmented sectors.
What makes these industries particularly interesting right now is their resistance to AI disruption. While AI may eventually affect many professional services, the trades are far down the list. Before AI can fix a pipe or rewire electrical systems, we'll see disruption in many other sectors. That makes these businesses attractive for their stable revenue and long runway before technology significantly changes the operating model.
THE CRITICAL IMPORTANCE OF EQUITIZING GENERATION TWO
A topic that came up at both the DeVoe M&A Conference and the Dynasty Financial Partners M&A Retreat is the importance of equitizing key executives and next-generation leadership. This matters in any industry where professional capital has created significant multiples, but it's especially relevant in wealth management where we do substantial work.
When you bring key people into the equity stack, you make your company more attractive to buyers. Acquirers want to see strong executive teams and next-generation leadership already in place. The time to think about this is years before any potential exit, not during the sale process. With adequate planning time, there are tax-efficient ways to create equity participation, whether through profits interests, phantom equity, equity appreciation rights, or other structures. We covered this in depth in Episode 339, Solocast 74, about why your Gen 2 matters in M&A.
TAX EFFICIENCY AND PLANNING AHEAD
Brian made an important point about the difference between planning equity participation five to seven years out versus scrambling to address it at the time of sale. When you have time, you have options. You can structure profits interests that don't create immediate taxable events. You can design vesting schedules that align with potential transaction timelines.
When you wait until a deal is imminent, the options narrow considerably. Retention bonuses and post-closing incentives can help, but they don't create the same alignment of interests as true equity participation. For younger key employees looking at decades of career ahead, a short-term bonus may not outweigh their concerns about long-term compensation under new ownership.
GRATITUDE FOR THE DEALQUEST COMMUNITY
As we move into 2026 and our seventh year producing the DealQuest Podcast, we want to express genuine appreciation to everyone who makes this possible. Our clients who trust us with their most important transactions. Our listeners who tune in each week. Our referral sources and center-of-influence partners across various industries.
One of the genuine joys of my week is recording this podcast and talking with people about deals. It's a passion that Brian shares, along with our team including BeeSian Yap who has been with the firm for over fifteen years. We're fortunate to work with great people on matters that have real impact on their lives and businesses.
OPTIMISM FOR 2026
I'll admit to being an eternal optimist, and I think that's almost a requirement for entrepreneurship. That said, there are objective reasons for optimism about the deal market in 2026. The pent-up demand we discussed is real. Eventually, people who wanted to exit two years ago decide they're done waiting. Eventually, the capital has to get deployed. Eventually, business decisions get made regardless of remaining uncertainty.
Whether it's the wealth management space that continues to perform well, the tech sector that will eventually see consolidation even as AI investment continues, or the trade industries that offer stable fundamentals, opportunities exist across multiple sectors. The dealmakers who will benefit most are those who maintain clear-eyed analysis of their specific industries and geographies rather than relying solely on broad market predictions.
Tune in to this episode to hear Brian and me break down our firsthand perspective on the 2025 deal market and what we see ahead for 2026. From the regional differences in activity to the importance of succession planning, from the effects of policy uncertainty to the opportunities created by change, this conversation offers practical insights for business leaders navigating critical transitions.
FOR MORE ON BRIAN MEEGAN
Kupfer.: https://www.kupferlaw.com/
FOR MORE ON COREY KUPFER
https://www.linkedin.com/in/coreykupfer/
https://www.coreykupfer.com/
Corey Kupfer is an expert strategist, negotiator, and dealmaker. He has more than 35 years of professional deal-making and negotiating experience. Corey is a successful entrepreneur, attorney, consultant, author, and professional speaker. He is deeply passionate about deal-driven growth. He is also the creator and host of the DealQuest Podcast.
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